CQ Politics: Boyda Top GOP Target

U.S. Rep. Nancy Boyda scored a major upset in the Second Congressional District in Kansas in 2006. Can she repeat? According to CQ Politics, it will be a difficult task, as the Republicans have placed targets for the seat as a flip-over this November.

A longtime Republican stronghold where freshman Democrat Nancy Boyda is defending a seat she won in a 2006 upset over five-term Republican incumbent Jim Ryun. Boyda, a former pharmaceutical company executive (and former Republican), is well-funded and continues to strike the profile as a Democratic moderate that she ran on in her win two years ago. But there surely is fodder in her House voting record for the GOP to make a case that she is not the kind of conservative representative who folks want in an eastern Kansas district that gave 59 percent of its votes to President Bush in 2004. The Republicans’ problem here — ironic, in the sense that the party has had huge candidate recruiting problems in many key races — is that they have not one, but two strong contenders seeking to take on Boyda. And the campaign for the Aug. 5 primary between the comeback-seeking Ryun and state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins has been expensive and bruising.

Bottom line: I have mixed opinions about this.

Obviously, one can possibly believe Boyda's victory was a fluke. In a heavily Republican district, she took advantage of anti-Bush sentiment and prevailed over Jim Ryun. With that in mind, it is possible she could get knocked off.

However, there is a buzz on the blogosphere that Boyda is polling very well. I also had a conversation a fellow reporter – a better one than myself and who has covered the district in the past – who said Boyda is very popular in the small towns within the district.

My gut feeling is in another year of anti-Bush and anti-Republican sentiment (fairly or not), she will hang on for one more term at least. Plus, with the Dems having a "rock-star" candidate running, it could help her prospects.