My First McCain-Obama Electoral Map

I'll do this from time-to-time on a random basis...maybe twice a month or something. Click for a larger photo.


Some notes:

• I have Obama winning the Electoral College 291-247. I actually have McCain winning the popular vote, making it similar to the 1960 election when Kennedy won the college comfortably but only won the popular vote by .2% I think Ohio, Missouri and Virginia will be razor thin and I think McCain will win a ton of "blue state votes" that Bush did not.

• I have McCain winning Michigan because of the performance of the Michigan Democratic Party leaders in the state for the past few years. A poor economy and scandals in Detroit have really tarnished the party in the state. Plus, McCain won the state in 2000 against Bush and nearly upset home-state guy Mitt Romney this year. I think McCain flips Michigan and maintains Florida. The delegate screwup in both Michigan and Florida could hurt Obama's chances.

• Because of his history, I feel McCain will also flip New Hampshire.

• I think the three key states Obama flips are Ohio, Virginia and Missouri. Virginia is turning blue in a quick fashion and Mark Warner will dominate a Senate race there, making it easier. Warner was a very popular governor and his coattails will actually extend to Obama. Obama dominated Hillary in the primary and I think he pulls an upset in Virginia. Unless if the economy rebounds quickly, I think Obama will win Ohio. And finally – Missouri. If Kansas City and St. Louis come out hard this year, Obama wins. I think they will. A few recent polls have all three of these states very close.

• In order to win the election, I feel McCain will have to flip two of four states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota. For now, he only has one.